Sunday, August 14, 2011

US Economic Crises

Actually the strength of bid for govt debt even in countries like the Us and UK given their current poor fiscal position is very worrying because of what it really signals.

It is signalling that a great deal of the world from individuals to companies and now to countries have become very risk averse to the degree where capital preservation is completely overshadowing the issue of return on capital.The big problem with this mindset is what it bodes for any increase in investment and expansion without which job growth is going to struggle.

This appears to be a backlash from 2008 that is simply creating a very poor macro economic picture. These markets are being supported by the big banks and the Fed to generate confidence but the numbers don't lie. Within ten years your $1,000 bond will be worth $404 at present inflation rates. In that time you will have collected a total of $214 not adjusted for inflation. Inflation is only 11.5% if a) your lone economist is right and b) if you're in the USA. On the whole it's institutions who are buying US bonds in order to diversify their risk. The yield isn't that important in a time of recession when investing in companies is high risk.

As for gold and silver, yes they could rise rapidly. However if the world economies settle down and we have a time of low growth and no shocks their prices will plumit.

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